National Weather Service
Area Forecast Discussion

741 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019
SYNOPSIS
Mainly cloudy skies will persist into the day on Monday as temperatures remain below normal. Temperatures will gradually warm back to above normal readings through mid week as a low pressure system moves into the Tennessee Valley. This will also bring and increasing chance of precipitation to the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.



NEAR TERM
THROUGH MONDAY
The back edge of the more significant pcpn is pushing northeast across central portions of the area this afternoon with some areas of drizzle lingering behind. The freezing line is still running along the Ohio River and we are continuing to see a mixture of sleet and freezing rain with the remaining heavier pcpn. Behind that, some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle may linger through late afternoon and into early evening. Last check with spotters around the area was not showing much in the way of road issues as the road surface temperatures are generally remaining above freezing. The current plan is to drop the southern tier of the advisory at 4 PM. Some patchy freezing drizzle may be possible through tonight across our north as the surface trough axis pivots down across the area. At this point think it will be patchy/light enough to allow the northern advisory to still go down at 7 PM. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s in the northwest to the lower 30s across the southeast.



SHORT TERM
MONDAY NIGHT
On the backside of the departing low, we will get into some low level CAA through the day on Monday. This will keep clouds in across the area and given the weak cyclonic low level flow, think a few flurries will be possible. The best chance for this will be across our northeast where the moisture is slightly deeper and coincides more with the DGZ. Temperatures will likely struggle to warm up with highs ranging from the upper 20s in the north to the lower 30s in the south.

High pressure and some drying will try to work in from the west Monday night. This may allow for at least some partial clearing from the west later in the night with overnight lows ranging from the upper teens in the northwest to the mid teens in the southeast.



LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Expect dry weather Tuesday as high pressure departs to the northeast. Widespread precipitation will return Tuesday night and Wednesday when low pressure and a plume of deep moisture arrive. Current model projections show that snow and freezing rain at the onset Tuesday evening will give way to rain as the air column warms above freezing. Before precip changes to all liquid from south to north by Wednesday afternoon, there may be accumulating snow and ice. Rainfall up to an inch could cause high water problems over still saturated soils and higher than normal streams.

High pressure pushing to the Great Lakes should allow drier weather Thursday into Friday, though light precip could persist mainly across the south, close to a stalled boundary. Another area of low pressure developing to the west and moving to the Great Lakes is likely to produce mainly rain Saturday into Sunday. Multiple rounds of rain will be possible in strong moisture transport along fronts associated with the low.

A chilly start Tuesday with highs in the 30s will be followed by a warming trend, with highs forecast to reach the above normal 40s and 50s each day from Wednesday through Sunday.



AVIATION
01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Surface low over the Upper Ohio River Valley to continue lifting northeast as sfc hang back trough drops into the region. Deeper moisture has shifted east and therefore heavier pcpn has ended.

Model forecast soundings show low level moisture with the top of this moisture warmer than -10 C. Lift will accompany this shallow moisture through the evening. Expect LIFR ceilings and vsbys in areas of freezing drizzle thru the evening.

Freezing drizzle expected to diminish with a few snow showers possible toward sunrise into early Monday as the column cools and the surface trof comes into plays. Expect a slow improvement to MVFR on Monday.



OUTLOOK

MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Wednesday into Thursday.



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